2016 Annual Election Period (AEP) Medicare Advantage (MA) Enrollment Growth Slows Compared to 2015

The number and share of Medicare beneficiaries enrolling in MA plans continue to increase, but the pace of growth is beginning to decline. Currently, there are nearly 18 million Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in MA health plans across the country. This includes all individual and group plan enrollment.

Approximately 32% of Medicare beneficiaries are now in MA plans, but we are starting to see the MA penetration begin to flatten out (Figure 1).

Figure 1 — Total Medicare Private Health Plan Enrollment, 2012-Feb 2016

The following chart shows the dramatic growth of Medicare beneficiaries enrolled in MA plans as of February 2016 (Figure 2), but the percentage growth of enrollment is declining. Since 2012, MA enrollment has grown 32% to nearly 18 million.

Figure 2 Total Medicare Private Health Plan Enrollment, 2012-Feb 2016

Note: Includes Medicare Medical Savings Account (MSA) plans, Cost plans, demonstration plans, and Special Needs Plans (SNPs), as well as other MA plans (individual and group).

Gorman Health Group (GHG) analyzed the 2016 AEP and saw the following when analyzing national and state-level enrollment trends:

• MA enrollment has continued to grow and increase in virtually all states in the 2016 AEP.
• MA enrollment is highly concentrated among large organizations.
• Most enrollees continue to be in Health Maintenance Organizations (HMOs). (Enrollees in HMOs typically pay lower premiums and have lower limits on out-of-pocket expenses.)

But we also saw a real decrease in the MA percentage of growth from the 2015 AEP to the 2016 AEP. The following tables show the total enrollment from December to February of each year.*

2015 AEP VS. 2016 AEP

While the 2015 AEP saw an overall growth of nearly 650,000 beneficiaries enrolled in MA health plans, the 2016 AEP saw an overall growth of 445,245 beneficiaries enrolled in MA health plans — this is nearly a 31% decrease in enrollment from 2015 AEP to 2016 AEP. This is attributable to the lack of growth in the Medicare-Medicaid Plan (MMP) product, which had an almost 160,000 increase in growth last AEP but only increased approximately 15,000 in the 2016 AEP. In addition there were losses in enrollment in the HMO-SNP enrollment as well as in Preferred Provider Organization (PPO) plans. The enrollment in HMOs continues to see growth, although the growth was not enough to compensate for the other losses or decreased gains from last year.

*AEP is measured by looking at February MA enrollment since the total AEP enrollment is not captured in January enrollment numbers.

For more information on enrollment trends or other Sales, Marketing, and Strategy consulting services through GHG, email ghg@ghgadvisors.com or contact me directly at dhollie@ghgadvisors.com.

Also, read about “MA Plans’ Must-Fix: The Member Experience” in a blog by John Gorman.

Resources

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