Takeaways from the Gorman Health Group 2016 Client Forum
The Gorman Health Group 2016 Forum concluded last week with over 200 of our closest clients and partners. There was great news and rough news, so here are a few takeaways:
- The playing field of government programs continues to expand rapidly, with improving revenue outlook across the board:
- We're sticking by our projections of over 29 million Medicare Advantage (MA) enrollees by 2023, driven by more positive rate trends and a plan-friendly baby boomer tsunami underway.
- Six to eight more states expand Medicaid — once President Obama leaves office.
- Significant enrollment gains for dual eligibles as home and community-based services (HCBS) waivers and managed long-term services and supports (MLTSS) initiatives become the new normal. We expect dual eligible special needs plan (D-SNP) enrollment to double and exceed 4 million by 2019.
- Rising ObamaCare enrollment, albeit slowing and below projections, as more difficult-to-reach populations remain outside coverage.
- During the Forum, United announced its departures from most ObamaCare Marketplaces. We characterized the news as a nothingburger in terms of enrollment or market impact but huge symbolically and politically. We expect another two to three messy years sorting out the pricing and finances of the Marketplace business, with membership reconciliation and cleanup of membership discrepancies front of mind for issuers.
- Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audits will begin to be conducted in MA — 2016-2018 will be the first time we see plans prosecuted under the False Claims Act and hundreds of millions clawed back by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) for unsubstantiated codes submitted for higher payments.
- Clinical and pharmacy data integration and strong provider partnerships around person-centered care were clear priorities in medical management, Star Ratings improvement, and Pharmacy Benefit Manager (PBM) oversight.
- The Star Ratings system of performance-based payment drives the payer and provider markets. This year will be the first year where plans below 3 stars are terminated. It's also when another 180+ MA plans will be scored for the first time, diluting ratings for existing plans, especially those at 4+ stars and denying many their bonuses and rebates in what promises to be an ugly "October Surprise."
- The turbulent Presidential elections will likely be won by Hillary Clinton, promising continued gridlock with a likely weakened and more polarized Congress. This means CMS will increasingly fight out policy changes "below the waterline" in subregulatory guidance and enforcement, where politicians are less likely to intervene. That means more surprises for plans not paying attention.
- Appeals and grievances and pharmacy benefit management vendor performance remain the #1, 2, and 3 regulatory infractions in MA and integration of long-term care and supports and services the leading challenge facing Medicaid health plans.
- CMS is on pace for its most aggressive enforcement year ever, with over a dozen actions taken against plans this year already.
As we've said since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, we are now in the Golden Age of government-sponsored health programs, and the opportunities and challenges that come with this shift have never been greater. Our clients went home with a clear grasp of both, and we are thrilled so many joined us this year.
Resources
Our distinguished team of experts collaborated to provide our interpretation of this announcement and the key features that will have the greatest impact on the industry, emphasizing core business functions in Risk Adjustment, Provider Network, Quality, Compliance, Pharmacy, and Data Integrity. Download our full Summary & Analysis of the Final Rate Announcement & Final Call Letter >>
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There's a Lot to Like and to Fear in the 2017 Medicare Advantage Call Letter
On Friday after the close, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) released the 2017 Medicare Advantage (MA) Call Letter with proposed policy and payment changes. There's a lot to like — and much to fear. On payments, CMS came in with higher-than-expected rates that make clear the long walk in the desert from cuts in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) is over. But on compliance, they are rolling out the firing squad with a broad mandate, and the Administration will leave its mark long after Obama has left office.
What We Like:
- The draft offers all-in rates of +1.35% and a trend of +3.05%, better than last year and better than expected.
- CMS is leaving home visits for MA risk adjustment untouched. If ever CMS was going to clamp down on this after years of threats, this was the time — in the last year of the Administration. By not doing so, we think they're closing the book, acknowledging much good also comes from these house calls, and the home is the most underutilized source of care in the delivery system for seniors. Despite MedPAC recommendations and a drumbeat of op-eds, CMS didn't want to throw the baby out with the bathwater.
- There are big proposed changes to risk adjustment and Star Ratingsfor MA plans serving dual eligibles.
- CMS would launch a new payment system with six subcategories: full duals, partial duals, and non-duals, for both aged and disabled beneficiaries. The net effect is like a crude, mega-risk adjuster, paying plans with more duals bigger, more accurate payments, while paying slightly less to plans with fewer duals.
- On Star Ratings, CMS is proposing an adjustment on three key measures — the overall plan rating, and Part C and D summary ratings — which will increase ratings for plans with higher proportions of duals and could increase bonus payments if the plan is 4+ stars. This is a big win for the industry.
- The health insurer issuer tax has been suspended for a year (and will return in 2018).
What We're Worried About:
- The rapid acceleration from 10% to 50% encounter data driving risk adjustment could depress risk scores. It's clear CMS is moving to 100% encounter data as quickly as possible and likely presages the use of encounters and not Fee-for-Service (FFS) claims to calculate risk factors as well as the phase-out of the coding intensity adjustment.
- CMS is proposing changes for Employer Group Waiver Plans (EGWPs) that amount to a "tax" on sponsors designed to reduce Medicare's spend on these 3 million of the 18 million beneficiaries in MA. EGWPs typically bid much higher than individual MA plans, and the proposal will likely result in a cost-shift to group members or a reduction in supplemental benefits. There was no estimated impact given, so watch this closely.
- CMS made it clear Star Ratings low performers will be executed by firing squad as early as next week. The Call Letter states plans rated below 3 stars for 3 consecutive years will be terminated in February 2016 for a December 31 effective date. Three to six plans qualify for termination. This will be the timeline for future years, and CMS states these decisions are non-negotiable.
- Huge news here on the compliance front:
- CMS notified Part D sponsors it's stepping up enforcement actions on coverage disputes and complaints, the leading noncompliance issue for plans.
- Plans failing the financial audits conducted on one-third of plans each year will no longer be subject to corrective action plans but rather sanctions and civil monetary penalties.
- CMS is ramping up audits and enforcement actions in network adequacy, provider directory accuracy, and medication therapy management programs.
As always, we now enter the frenzied public comment/lobbying phase where the industry tries to get an even better deal, with the final policies announced April 4. As these things go, MA plans should be generally happy about the financial picture while getting down to the busy work of getting the compliance house in order. Most of what's proposed here, we think, becomes the "new normal" long after Obama has left office.
Resources
Join John Gorman, GHG Executive Chairman, and colleagues, Olga Walther, Senior Legislative & Policy Advisor, and Leslie Mullins, GHG's Senior Consultant, as they provide a hard-hitting analysis of critical areas addressed in the document. Learn what the proposed "methodology changes" could mean for your organization and its partners, and the steps you can take to soften the impact on Tuesday, March 1 from 2:30-3:30 pm ET. Register now >>
Register your team for the 2016 GHG Forum. For more details around the event and agenda, download the full conference brochure or visit our website. Register now >>
Stay connected to industry news and gain perspective on how to navigate the latest issues through GHG's weekly newsletter. Subscribe >>
Government Sends Stark Reminders that Insurers' Biggest Customer is Still the Regulator
Since we opened our doors 19 years ago, we've preached to health insurers to think of the government as your business partner. This week, we got several reminders that insurers' biggest customers -- Medicare, Medicaid, and ObamaCare -- are still the regulator. As business conditions improve for health plans across these business lines, government expectations are rising, and scores are about to get settled, as they always are in the second term of a Democratic administration.
We see it in enforcement activity from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). We see it in a steadily-rising bar of Star Ratings and other performance measures for health plans for all three programs, the basis of looming contract terminations. And now the White House jumps in with an aggressive schedule of risk adjustment data audits, openly seeking repayments and dropping "f" bombs: fraud, that is.
They named a great film after a moment like this: "There Will Be Blood."
You can't argue with the numbers: 2015 remains the most punitive year in Medicare Advantage history. Look at the trend:
CMS is also being much more aggressive this year with data-driven oversight and enforcement. Communications to health plans who are "outliers" in various performance measures, especially in member communications and consumer protections, began recently. A pattern we are seeing play out is CMS chasing down all clients of noncompliant pharmacy benefit managers; where poor Part D performance is seen in one plan, the agency then begins auditing that vendor's other customers, assuming they'll get the same findings.
We know that Star Ratings and expanding reporting requirements in Medicare Advantage and Part D mean the bar is rising and establishes data-driven thresholds against which health plans can be penalized and terminated beginning in 2016. CMS announced sweeping new reporting requirements for both programs this week, which inevitably get picked up in Medicaid and ObamaCare rules in following years.
And now the White House is piling on. In Washington, we talk a lot about "setting the terms of debate." Our industry has lost the debate on risk adjustment coding and has allowed anti-managed care advocates to define payers' inaccurate diagnostic coding as fraud. A just-disclosed February 2015 letter from President Obama's Budget Director to Health Secretary Sylvia Matthews Burwell stated, "While some progress has been made on this front, we believe a more aggressive strategy can be implemented to reduce the level of improper payments we are currently seeing...we must continue to explore new and innovative ways to address the problem and attack this challenge with every tool at our disposal...the government estimate of $12.2 billion in these mistakes for fiscal year 2014 remains a concern." He extended his mandate beyond Medicare Advantage to over $3 billion in questionable payments from Medicaid. This means a spike in data validation audits for payers across both programs with the threat of improper payment clawbacks and even prosecution under the False Claims Act.
There has never been a more Golden Age of opportunity for health insurers in government programs. But the threats are escalating as well, and as my politics professor told me, "99% of political wounds are self-inflicted." Plans caught up in this dragnet will have gotten plenty of warnings.
Resources
The Part C and Part D Reporting Requirements and Supporting Regulations were posted in the PRA Listing on August 24th for review and 30-day comment. Since we are still in this window, this is a great opportunity for Compliance and Operations to review these together. Click here to review the Part C highlights that merit your attention in a blog posted by Regan Pennypacker, Senior Vice President of Compliance Solutions at Gorman Health Group (GHG).
Stay connected to industry news and gain perspective on how to navigate the latest issues through GHG's weekly newsletter. Subscribe >>
Takeaways from Accountable Physician Groups' Annual Summit
Twice a year I get the honor of speaking to the California Association of Physician Groups' (CAPG) annual summit and DC policy meeting. CAPG represents accountable, capitated physician groups, and now has members in 39 states. They're always among my favorite speeches given how sophisticated the audiences are. Here's a few takeaways from my talk last week on "The Future of Government Programs":
- Forevermore, physician group revenues and earnings will be dominated by Medicare Advantage, Medicaid and dual eligible health plans, and the ObamaCare plans, most likely in that order.
- Everything that Medicare Advantage (MA) does, the Medicaid, ObamaCare, and commercial markets follow 3-5 years later. Nobody knows this better than the CAPG members from CA, which the rest of the nation lags. Want to still be attending CAPG meetings in 2020? Master Star Ratings and risk adjustment. They'll apply to all lines of business if they don't already, and they are the keys to survival already in MA.
- Value-based contracting is in its infancy but will soon define all health plan contracts with physician groups. Fee-for-service is dead. Performance-based capitation is the only future. To master it a physician group needs a range of capabilities, including eligibility verification, interoperability, actionable clinical intelligence in real time, standardized care processes, and chronic care management, across all business lines.
- Most Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs), especially the 424 in Medicare, will not see a return on their investment. They will have spent millions to participate in these experiments and around 80% won't see a payoff. 2016 and 2017, when Medicare Advantage benchmark rates turn into a tailwind, present the perfect opportunity for ACOs to "move up the food chain" to become health plans.
- Dual eligibles are the biggest opportunity of our lifetimes, and there is no question that Special Needs Plans designed to serve them can be profitable. SNPs are a principal mechanism for states to shift long-term care risk into the private sector, and will be a central product for ACOs converting into Medicare Advantage. But they require a range of capabilities most physician groups lack today, such as enabling and social services that duals must have from their insurer.
- In all government programs, the "5/60 Rule" governs. 5% of members often account for 60% of costs. Any physician group that aspires to bear risk must be able to identify and intervene with their 5 percenters or they won't be risk-bearing for long.
- The biggest vulnerabilities for MA plans are consumer protections like appeals and grievances and complaint management, and who they have selected as their pharmacy benefit manager (PBM). Most PBMs are frankly terrible at Medicare Part D administration, and Star Ratings now count far more in Part D than in Medicare Advantage to a health plan's overall score. Physician groups typically have little or no experience with either PBMs or consumer protections.
- Retail pharmacies and the home are the most underutilized sources of care to government programs beneficiaries. Any successful physician group evolution will involve better integration of both sites for the chronically ill.
- Most at-risk physician groups are directly involved in coding and reporting for risk adjustment. Federal agencies are paying unprecedented attention to upcoding in Medicare Advantage with an eye to hundreds of millions of dollars in clawbacks and recoveries. The emphasis at physician groups involved in risk adjustment must move from chart reviews and claims extracts to more holistic member evaluations, and from a culture of "what can we get?" to "how do we stay out of trouble?"
Evolution is a messy business. Nowhere is that more the case than in physician groups evolving from fee-for-service to value-based contracting and becoming insurance companies. If it was an easy business, we'd be out of business.
Resources
Don't miss Gorman Health Group's Chief Consulting Officer, with colleagues Jane Scott, Senior Vice President of Clinical Innovations and Regan Pennypacker, Vice President of Compliance Solutions, as they discuss your member experience and the factors that influence success and failure, as well as prominent compliance and service issues plaguing the industry. Register now >>
From ACO-type incentives to bundled payments and contract capitation, to full professional and global capitation — where the potential is promising, we can help design and implement these arrangements. Let's get started. Contact us today.
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You're Doing it Wrong in Care Management
An important paper recently released in the American Journal of Managed Care shattered the notion that care management can save money on high utilizers. The article reviewed recent studies of the effectiveness of health plan care management programs and found that, while many studies show significant savings, more rigorous studies concluded that savings were "limited or nonexistent." Mind. Blown.
We're all familiar with the "80/20 rule" of the commercial health insurance market: 20% of members account for 80% of expenditures. In government programs, Medicaid, Medicare, and now ObamaCare, it's the "5/60" rule: 5% of members account for 60% of spending. The AJMC article showed that across all payers in 2012, it's "5/50". 95% of the population accounted for just half of health spending, while the other half of spending was towards care for 5% of the population. The 5% of people needing to spend the most on health care spend an average of around $43,000 annually; people in the top 1% have average spending of almost $98,000. At the other end of the spectrum, the 50% of the population with the lowest spending accounted for less than 3% of all total health spending; the average spending for this group was $234.
The article then explored multiple studies on effectiveness of care management, concluding it's mostly pointless. It gave several reasons for why this might occur:
- Many high-utilizers only stay in this category for a short period of time. Conditions causing them to need intensive care may resolve quickly, reducing costs, but a study lacking a control group may inappropriately attribute this savings to the care management program.
- High utilizers suffer from a wide range of conditions and require a wide range of interventions, making it difficult for care management programs to tailor teams meeting each patient's needs.
- Providers working with a care management team may better identify conditions that were previously going untreated, leading to better outcomes, but also higher costs for additional services and therapies.
The author concluded that "for care management programs focusing on high-utilizing patients, it is crucial to select patients with long-term utilization patterns that are driven by the factors most conducive to change. Given the very limited direct evidence suggesting how to accomplish this, care management programs are best served by being kept small and focused on the highest-need patients, who may not necessarily be current high utilizers."
This finding calls for a rethinking across our industry about care management. For one thing, most health plans in our 19 years' experience are still doing 1990s-style managed care: preauthorizations, referrals, concurrent review -- what we refer to as "make work" medical management. It's look busy, high head-count work that does little to improve quality or reduce unnecessary spending.
Many GHG clients have been working with us to modernize this approach into data-driven care coordination "pods" providing a holistic model of care focused on high utilizers and those about to become them. This study means we need to recommit to data analytics identifying and directing the work of care managers toward those beneficiaries with long-term needs that can be impacted. This means greater emphasis on preventable episodes of care, and on end-of-life care preferences, advance directives and care plans. If you take the top 5% of the membership that is incurring the most cost and provide complex care management, including a higher level of home care, hospital diversion, medication therapy management, nutrition counseling, and wound care, plans and their provider organizations will see a reduction in avoidable medical expenses.
Savings can also be realized if that membership is appropriately placed in the right plan with the right network. Care Management might not be the answer but applicable coverage is a strategy. That's where plan and benefit design is so important. Innovative plans are working with specialists to design products that reflect risk and chronic conditions of their members. Our work with a prominent dialysis and kidney care provider is a perfect example: design a benefit and align a network that is tailored to patients with varying levels of chronic kidney disease, preventing disease progression and/or avoidable costs traditionally seen if CKD is not managed along the disease state continuum. Progressive conditions like CKD, Alzheimer's, and many cancers lend themselves well to "smart management" that spans clinical staff and benefit design alike.
The one thing you know about government beneficiaries is that if they're not sick today, they're gonna be. The game has always been finding the ones who need extraordinary care before they need it, and ensuring they get it in the right place, at the right time, from the right provider. That hasn't changed. This study underscores the point. "Make work" care management must give way to "make it work".
Resources
Big Data is costly, distracting, overwhelming and paralyzing if not maximized. System and process interoperability and integration are keys to program alignment, oversight and evaluation . Systems and data should not just integrate; they need to align in order to yield superior, reportable outcomes. Visit our website to learn how GHG can help >>
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Gorman Health Group Client Forum Takeaways: Government Programs are Booming, Bar is Rising
We just wrapped our best-ever Gorman Health Group 2015 Client Forum at National Harbor with over 200 of our closest clients and partners. There was both great and tough news, so here's a few takeaways, including a couple stunners:
- For the first time, a prominent Wall Street analyst said he could see a path to 100% Medicare Advantage penetration. Barclay's eminent health care observer, Josh Raskin, stunned our audience with projections of over 29 million Medicare Advantage enrollees by 2023, a penetration rate of over 42%, with the potential to go all the way with Ryan Plan-like legislation now feasible this decade.
- 47 states now hold Section 1915(c) home and community-based services waivers for Medicaid, which will unleash a new flood of dual eligibles into health plans. Special Needs Plans (SNPs) for duals are now on a path to permanent reauthorization, and over 30 states now use D-SNPs to enroll over 1.6 million beneficiaries. That number will more than double in the next 2 years.
- While year 2 of open enrollment for ObamaCare was dramatically improved from its messy launch, problems persist, especially with membership reconciliation and issues related to the interim process to auto-enroll most members staying in their plans. Cleanup of membership discrepancies will likely take another year or even longer.
- Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) audits will become the new normal in Medicare Advantage. 2015 will be the first time we see plans prosecuted under the False Claims Act and hundreds of millions clawed back by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services for unsubstantiated codes submitted for higher payments.
- Maximizing data, strong provider partnerships, documentation and ICD-10 preparedness are keys to audit proofing your Risk Adjustment program.
- The Star Ratings system of performance-based payment is the new cornerstone of competition among health plans. Stars has expanded into more than a dozen state Medicaid programs, and to ObamaCare's issuers as well, and the bar is rising. Technical changes to several measures mandate much higher performance to stay ahead of the curve and avoid falling below 4 Stars, where bonus payments and bid rebates vanish. 2015 will be the first year where plans below 3 Stars are terminated.
- Medicare Advantage plans won several lobbying victories in this year's "Call Letter", the rate and policy announcement for 2016, including an average 1.25% benchmark increase from a cut in the February draft. This signals a new era of influence muscle for the industry, where CMS will increasingly fight out policy changes "below the waterline" in subregulatory guidance and enforcement, where politicians are less likely to intervene.
- Appeals and grievances and pharmacy benefit management vendor performance remain the #1, 2 and 3 regulatory infractions in Medicare Advantage, and integration of long-term care and supports and services the leading challenge facing Medicaid health plans.
- CMS is on pace for its most aggressive enforcement year ever, with over a dozen actions taken against plans this year already.
As we've said since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, we are now in the Golden Age of government-sponsored health programs, and the opportunities and challenges that come with this shift have never been greater. Our clients went home with a clear grasp of both, and we are thrilled so many joined us this year.
Resources:
Join John Gorman, GHG's Founder & Executive Chairman, as well as Bill MacBain, GHG's Senior Vice President of Strategy on April 14 as they provide a hard-hitting analysis of critical areas addressed and finalized in the document from 1-2pm ET. Register now >>
GHG's Senior Vice President, Healthcare Analytics & Risk Adjustment Solutions, Dan Weinrieb, recaps the Risk Adjustment rulings in the Final Call Letter and provides keys to success in an article on the GHG blog. Read more here >>
Industry Ducks Bullets in 2016 Medicare Advantage Rate Proposal
Friday, February 20th after close of business, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), released its 2016 Advance Notice of Medicare Advantage Payment, known affectionately as "the call letter."
This one was the most anticipated in years, and the industry unexpectedly ducks bullets in it, in risk adjustment, Star Ratings, and elsewhere. It's got a few unicorn farts in it, and a couple puffs of Chanel No. 5 as well.
The lack of any shockers is the bigger positive for the industry, a turning point really. CMS is saying it won't settle its scores with payers through policy, but through enforcement, where the facts are often too tough for politicians to stick their necks out.
Last fall's surprise positive announcement that MA benchmarks were tracking to increase 2.02% next year started this year's dance. Now comes the draft call letter, and on April 6, the final, all of which will be different as CMS winds through its process and the full fury of industry lobbying is brought to bear. It's worth noting that this year a first-time majority of 53 Senators signed the annual "don't hurt Medicare Advantage (MA)" letter to CMS, vs. only 40 last year. The increased Congressional pressure and the fact that MA now represents one out of three beneficiaries is driving this call letter.
By our calculations, the 0.95% reduction in MA benchmarks claimed by CMS is really negative 1.76% all-in. This is the unicorn fart. The final number quoted by CMS, 1.1% positive, is in part because CMS is taking credit for a 2.0% improvement in risk scores as plans continue to improve their risk adjustment management skills. Kinda cheeky. Our read on the underlying trend is +1.53%, frankly, better than we anticipated.
On risk adjustment, anticipation was that CMS would take a lethal shot at prospective in-home evaluations, a tough fee-for-service normalization factor, and an increase in the coding intensity adjustment, but NONE of those happened.
On home visits, despite a hailstorm of bad press and advocacy group investigations, CMS isn't even dealing anymore, just laying out "best practices" and saying "we're watching you." The regulators laid out 8 criteria that would make the prospective evaluation more like a risk assessment conducted by a Special Needs Plan, including:
- Evaluation performed by a physician or qualified non-physician practitioner
- Includes all components of the wellness visit including health risk assessment
- Medication review and reconciliation
- Scheduling appointments and referrals with appropriate providers and community resources
- Environmental scan of the home for safety risks and need for adaptive equipment
- Verifies that the information obtained during the assessment is furnished to appropriate plan staff and providers
- Provides enrollees with a summary of the information collected
- Enrolls the beneficiary in disease management or care management programs.
Taking these steps and embedding risk adjustment management inside a health plan's Medical Management department would effectively audit-proof the company from the dreaded data validation audits expected to intensify this year.
Another shocker: CMS did the absolute bare-minimum on the coding intensity adjustment, and then heaved up a dangerous proposal to recalculate it starting in 2017. If implemented, CMS would cut payments to all MA plans by enough so that total payments would be no greater than under the pre-HCC, pre-PIP-DCG, pre-2000 AAPCC demographic model. This would make risk adjustment a zero sum game, in which individual plans could win or lose, but in which CMS would never pay out more than under the old AAPCC model. That would settle the score on home visits once and for all, and indelibly damage risk adjustment as a healthcare financing innovation.
A final surprise: CMS acknowledges it has a problem on Star Ratings for health plans serving dual eligibles and the low-income. The agency is cutting the weight of several Stars measures where vulnerable members score poorly, by a whopping 50% in 2016. This buys time for CMS and several plans overweight with low-income members and highly exposed to Stars underperformance to conduct additional research and take steps against what is driving the correlation.
It was, in the end, a surprisingly favorable call letter for health plans and other stakeholders, particularly capitated provider organizations. But we're still a long way from the Final Notice on April 6. How plans should react:
- First, write comment letters. Deadline is March 6 at 5 pm EST.
- The proposal to cap total MA payments at the same level as would have been paid under the pre-2000 demographic-only risk adjustment system is dangerous. Plans need to point out how the Congress, in the 1997 Balanced Budget Act, mandated a health-based risk adjustment system because the demographic adjustments were inadequate. We are not aware of any authority in that, or any other law, to allow CMS to set a cap on total MA payments.
- Take the guidance on home risk assessments seriously, and implement CMS' suggestions before they become mandates. Plans must hard-wire their risk adjustment program into their care management program, so they are actively managing the risks they identify.
- Don't rely on averages: the impact of CMS rates and other changes will vary from county to county, market by market. Let us help you examine the impact on your service area.
- Continued rate pressure means plans have to continue to get better and better at the key components of their business: risk adjustment, care management, Stars, and enrollment data reconciliation.
- Focus on the Stars metrics with the greatest weights, especially the intermediate outcomes measures and the plan-wide quality improvement measures. Determine if the reweighting of seven metrics will have a positive or negative impact on your plan, and react to offset any negative effects, by emphasizing other metrics where there is room for improvement.
It's going to be an interesting 45 days to the Final Notice, but one thing is sure in this call letter: CMS is conceding that Medicare Advantage has gone mainstream, and that its support in Congress can no longer be tangled with. CMS is showing its preference to impact industry behavior through its boot rather than its pen.
Resources
Join John Gorman, GHG Executive Chairman, and colleague, Bill MacBain, GHG's Senior Vice President of Strategy and former health plan CFO, as they provide a hard-hitting analysis of critical areas addressed in the document, including a look at the various components that make up the trend factor, a proposed change to how risk scores are determined, health risk assessments, and Star Rating measures on March 3, 2015. Register Now >>
Registration for the Gorman Health Group 2015 Forum is now open! Attendees can expect timely, actionable advice on the trends shaping health care from notable speakers, including Barclay's analyst, Joshua Raskin, and regulatory guidance directly from Jennifer Smith, a Director in the Medicare Parts C and D Enforcement Group at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Register your team for The Gorman Health Group 2015 Forum today!
Risk Adjustment Data Validation (RADV) Audits Just Got Real
Last night the second-largest Medicare Advantage plan in the country, Humana, filed an SEC document detailing a US Department of Justice investigation into the company's risk adjustment coding and data collection practices. The investigation is an extension of a 2010 physician-led whistleblower action under the False Claims Act. The company has over 3.2 million Medicare Advantage members.
For years CMS has struggled to define the process and methodology it would use to pursue payment recoveries from Medicare Advantage plans which were overpaid under risk adjustment. In 2012 it finalized its process and launched its first round of RADV audits, on a parallel track with those being conducted by the Office of Inspector General at the Department of Health and Human Services.
The Justice Department's involvement in the Humana audit would appear to indicate the review is in the advanced stages and has been underway for some time. The methodology assures an extrapolated repayment to the Federal government for unsubstantiated codes submitted for risk adjustment. That this action also comes in connection with the False Claims Act and a qui tam whistleblower action could signal serious trouble for the insurance giant.
RADV just got real.
Resources
GHG can support your risk adjustment from start to finish when it comes to preparing for your RADV audit and prepare a readiness plan. We're standing by to support you in comprehensive audit coordination, limited audit oversight and targeted engagement services. Visit our website to learn more >>
Registration for the Gorman Health Group 2015 Forum is now open! Attendees can expect timely, actionable advice on the trends shaping health care from notable speakers, including Barclay's analyst, Joshua Raskin, and regulatory guidance directly from Jennifer Smith, a Director in the Medicare Parts C and D Enforcement Group at the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS). Register your team for The Gorman Health Group 2015 Forum today!
The 2015 Medicare Advantage Final Call Letter = Unicorn Rainbow Farts
The Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services' (CMS) release of the final 2015 Call Letter for Medicare Advantage (MA) Monday after the close was a "unicorns farting rainbows" moment. Unicorn rainbow farts bring happiness and joy to all those that observe them, and then dissipate quickly. After a beating at the hands of the ever-more powerful insurance lobby for another draconian draft released in February, CMS reversed itself yet again and proclaimed a 0.4% increase in MA benchmarks. Lobbyists and Wall Street analysts rejoiced...only to find after a closer look that there are some nasty hooks in the pie CMS put on the windowsill.
We've tried for days to replicate CMS' math to get to a 0.4% increase, and can't, because it's vapor, magical horse methane. The truth is, we're looking at an average cut of at least 3% for MA next year, and our logic follows below:
Others agree: DeutscheBank says -3.5%; Morgan Stanley projects -3.1%, Bank of America says -3.3%. And that ushers in a two-year march in the desert for Medicare plans following the 6% hit they took in 2014. There will be wide variation among plans, with lesser negative impact for plans which can continue to bid below the benchmarks.
The trends by themselves cut the benchmarks a lot, to the tune of almost 8%. And there's a ripple effect there, on Star ratings of all things: the -4% trend on the old benchmarks lowers the ceiling, and the effect is to truncate Stars bonuses in almost half of US counties. Ironically, high-performing plans take a hit, especially in double bonus counties, in this final rate announcement.
CMS's second consecutive reversal of its proposed ban on diagnostic codes for risk adjustment from home visits was a huge win for the industry, and as we see it, the one ray of light in the final call letter. CMS delayed the change until 2016, and that delay makes up for most of the impact of the negative trends in the benchmarks. But this isn't an equal across the board fix. Given that the FFS normalization factor places a 4% multiple on every point of a plan's risk adjustment factor (RAF) score, plans have an even greater incentive to identify and document every diagnosis that maps to an HCC.
This is further amplified by the decision to roll back the phase in of the new HCCs. On average, the new HCC scores would cut about 2.6% out of MA plans' payments. In 2014, CMS is blending new and old HCCs, with new scores given a 0.75 weight. For 2015, they are rolling that back to a 0.33 weight. That's worth 109 basis points by our calculation. So, compared to 2014, one RAF point is worth 1.05 points in 2015. Given the deferral of the home risk assessment rule for at least another year, plans should be doing home visits intensively this year, and working to evolve their programs to be more clinically meaningful, e.g., a care plan for every diagnostic code submitted from a home visit, and making the house call into more of a "mobile medical home" including mobile labs, imaging and drug therapy counseling.
CMS also makes clear in the final call letter that Medicare Advantage plans ranked 3 Stars or less for 3 consecutive years will be nonrenewed. This means termination notices could be going out as early as August given plans have to execute 2015 contracts with the agency in September, before the Annual Enrollment Period. Many plans will choose to nonrenew rather than be publicly shut down by CMS for poor quality. Dozens of plans are now dead men walking, including several of the publicly-traded Medicaid plans and several Blue Cross/Blue Shield organizations. So in a matter of weeks, a Hunger Games-style "reaping" will occur that will change the face of this industry.
So the long walk in the desert for Medicare Advantage begins. Forward-looking plans will prepare by ramping up their risk adjustment operations, ensuring their Stars programs have the resources they need to keep scores moving up, revisiting their service models, and working daily on closer collaboration with their provider networks.
Resources
On April 11 GHG Comments on the Final Rate Announcement in a webinar hosted by Gorman Health Group Founder and Executive Chairman John Gorman, financial expert and former health plan CFO, Bill MacBain, and former regulator and industry-renowned policy expert Jean LeMasurier. Register for the webinar >>
Listen in as John Gorman shares his reactions to the 2015 Final Call Letter from CMS. He covers the implications of the final rates, as well as what the pull back on risk adjustment means to MA plans this year, and beyond. Click here to download the podcast >>
Join Gorman Health Group May 1 — 2 at the Red Rock Casino and Resort in Las Vegas for the 2014 GHG Forum. This two-day event builds on the success of past GHG Forums and is designed to provide best practices for the decision makers of organizations serving Medicare members, Exchange beneficiaries, and the Dual eligible population. Register now >>
Lighting the Path in the Golden Age of Government-Sponsored Health Programs: Join Us for the GHG Client Forum
More than 300 guests will convene on May 1-2 at the Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas for the 2014 Gorman Health Group Forum, our annual strategic retreat for leaders in government-sponsored health programs. This year's gathering promises to be the most actionable, content-packed conference you could attend on how to succeed in this new Golden Age of government business. And when the learning and planning is done for the day, we will celebrate this unique moment in health care history as only GHG can in Vegas. Here's what's happening this year and why you've got to join us:
- The event features 27 content-charged sessions, including multiple presentations on Star Ratings tactics, quality improvement, risk adjustment, and compliance challenges unique to Medicare Advantage and Part D, Medicaid, and the ObamaCare exchanges
- A keynote presentation from CMS leadership
- An expert roster of presenters from Gorman Health Group and leading health plans in government-sponsored programs. No fluff, no sales pitches, no history lessons -- it's all about what to do NOW
- Approved for up to 12 continuing education credits from the Compliance Certification Board
- The perfect off-the-strip venue to minimize distractions during the day, but close enough to the action to make plenty of bad decisions in the evenings. ;)
Based on feedback from last year's Forum, I'm speaking in three separate sessions on overall strategy and implementation planning for government programs. If you've heard my "state of the industry" presentation before, you may think you know what to expect from me on stage. Think again. This is my favorite gathering of the year, and I'm building three brand-spankin' new presentations that are focused on specific steps and mileposts your organization needs to reach this year in care management innovation, risk adjustment, Star Ratings, and operational performance improvement. In each session I'll drill down to specific steps, and we'll leave you with a self-assessment tool in our closing session to help track your progress.
Many of our clients use the Forum as an offsite retreat for their government programs executive teams, and so we offer huge group discounts to encourage it. It's a unique opportunity for team-building and action-oriented planning and budgeting.
If government-sponsored health programs are central to your company's future, do yourself a favor and join us in Vegas. You'll come back tired, happy, and ready to win in this crazy new environment of health reform.
Don't believe me? Hear what last year's attendees thought about the event, and why they keep coming back for more.
Resources
Register today for The Annual GHG Forum held May 1-2 at the Red Rock Casino and Resort in Las Vegas. This two day event is designed to provide best practices for the decision makers of organizations serving Medicare members, Exchange beneficiaries, and the Dual eligible population.
On April 11, Bill MacBain and Jean LeMasurier will be back, and this time joined by John Gorman, Executive Chairman of GHG, to offer insight on the Final Rate Announcement from CMS. You will walk away from this session with critical to-do items and issues to tackle in order to ensure your success in 2015 and beyond. Register now >>