Tea Party Losing Stranglehold on GOP is Good News for Medicare
As Washington, DC’s sports team suck so badly, this time of year politics is our smashmouth football, and I am loving this GOP primary season! It’s had everything so far: a thorough vetting of the candidates (hasta la vista, Govs. Perry, Huntsman and Pawlenty), high drama (Palin and Christie indecision; the Iowa caucuses squeaker), sex (awesome Cain and Gingrich salaciousness), some crazies (Ron Paul, Bachmann — especially her husband), and even Medicare fraud (see the Gingrich Super PAC slam piece on Romney, “Blood Money“)! And now: after a stunner in the SC primary, Newt Gingrich’s fast fade in Florida is the latest indication that the Tea Party is losing its grip on the GOP. And that’s good news for Medicare, with a monster deficit reduction package looming in 2013.
Endorsements this weekend from Tea Party darlings Cain and Palin and the support of the Tea Party Express have not lifted Gingrich back over Mitt Romney in the Florida polls, where as of a day before the primary Gingrich trails by 5-20 points. If Romney wins Florida and goes on to clinch the nomination in the coming weeks, it will serve as further proof of the declining fortunes of the far-right wing of the party: many of the Tea Party freshmen House members are struggling to make their fundraising goals, and several are behind in their own reelections. They’ll always be noisy, irrational, anti-establishment problem children for the GOP, and now it looks as if there will be many fewer of them next year. House Speaker John Boehner, in a private moment, must be weeping Merlot-induced tears of joy for a change — he can start looking forward to a more governable caucus next year.
The implications for Medicare of a declining Tea Party faction in the House are clear. Medicare is the single-largest contributor to the national deficit, and if there’s a cohesive cause among Tea Party members it must be deficit reduction. Less influence for the Tea Party means less pressure for draconian cuts and systemic reforms to Medicare.
Maybe we can have a sane debate on the merits of the Ryan or Wyden proposals next year — and a permanent fix to Medicare physician reimbursement, instead of a replay of the fiscal kamikaze mission the Tea Party forced the GOP into during last summer’s debt ceiling debate. That episode not only drove the US to the edge of default and cost the nation its triple-A credit rating, but crushed American confidence like few recent events and nearly tipped the economy back into recession.
There’s no chance we’ll see a substantive deficit reduction package in an election year, which means the voters will decide national budget priorities at the ballot box this November. That means a monster deficit bill in 2013, where we hope cooler heads will prevail with fewer tri-corner hats on the House floor.