The Air of Inevitability Around Romney

I can’t remember the last time I had more fun watching electoral politics.  Obama suffers an open-mic gaffe and is losing White House staff like he’s losing his hair.  Herman Cain’s sexual harassment fiasco deepened in its second week.  Rick Perry suffered an excruciating 45-second brain-fart in a GOP debate where he couldn’t remember one of 3 Federal agencies he wants to abolish.  Which was the worst primary-ending gaffe: Cain’s ongoing trouble with the ladies, Perry’s “oops”, or Howard Dean’s primal scream?

As fun as watching all this is (and it’s DC’s only spectator sport worth watching these days as our Redskins flush another season down the toilet) its result is an air of inevitability that Mitt Romney will emerge as the GOP nominee for President.  Pawlenty, Trump, Bachmann, Christie, Perry, Cain…all surged and flamed out in the face of Romney’s rock-steady support at about one-quarter of likely GOP primary voters.

Next to surge as “anyone but Romney” is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich…and he’s sure to wither under media scrutiny of the many unpalatable items in his personal and professional lives.  As smart as he is, his arrogance is legendary and he is just not a likeable guy.  You need to be likeable or at least inspiring to win a nomination, and Gingrich is neither.  My guess is he runs out of money right after the Iowa caucuses.

So it still looks like Romney v. Obama next year. The futures markets — great predictors of uncertain outcomes — agree, showing Romney futures spiked folllowing Perry’s “oops” and Obama holding steady with about 52% of investors saying he’ll win reelection.  Lack of enthusiasm will likely be the defining characteristic of the 2012 campaign — the GOP will be only “in like” with Romney and many Democrats will be feeling the same for Obama — which lends itself to “Advantage — Incumbent”.

I am LOVING this primary season!  So much great comedy fodder!  I can’t wait to see what Saturday Night Live does this weekend.

I still think we’re looking at a narrow Obama reelection, and implementation of the ACA in 2014 right on schedule.