Welcome to Another Year of Gridlock in DC
Welcome to the second session of the 112th Congress, when the most unpopular group of politicians in history (13% job approval rating last week) is poised to shirk their responsibilities to govern, and turn the House and Senate into campaign stumps. In an election year characterized by the most polarized electorate in recent memory, don’t expect much of anything to get done in DC, least of all on the tough issues like reforming Medicare and Medicaid.
After all of last year’s drama — games of chicken on government shutdowns, the debt default crisis, the failed not-so-supercommittee — few expect substantive legislation to land on the President’s desk this year.
Politico points out that “Senate Democrats are already talking about scheduling votes to put the eventual GOP nominee in an awkward spot, forcing him to choose between the unpopular congressional wing of his party and more moderate, independent voters. Mitt Romney, for instance, could be forced to take positions on immigration measures backed by Hispanic voters but opposed by his conservative base, as well as populist-tinged economic proposals spending federal dollars to create jobs for first responders and teachers, Democrats say. House Republicans, in the meantime, want to push proposals to expand energy production and other issues that resonate with wide swaths of the public but divide Obama and his base. They say there is no shortage of anti-regulatory proposals aimed at portraying the Obama administration as harmful to the business community.”
South Dakota Sen. John Thune, a member of GOP leadership, said the window for substantive legislation will be open for the first few months of the year and then “everybody will get their running shoes on. I think once we have a nominee, that race sort of starts eclipsing a little bit of what’s happening around here,” he said. “Maybe that creates a better atmosphere for getting things done around here.” Asked if he really believed that, Thune conceded: “No, I don’t. I’m just channeling something here — wishful thinking, I suppose.”
Don’t expect the outcome of the election to remedy the situation. There are 3 possible scenarios as I see it:
- Obama is narrowly re-elected and Democrats maintain leadership of the Senate: weakened President, weakened Democratic margins (Dems are defending 23 Senate seats this year vs. 10 for the GOP, so they’ll certainly lose seats) = more gridlock.
- Obama is narrowly re-elected but Republicans win the Senate: badly weakened President with no control over legislature: worse gridlock. For the record, I ‘m thinking this is the most likely outcome this year.
- Obama defeated and Republicans win the Senate: Democrats throw themselves on the partisan hand grenade to prevent GOP from undoing Obama’s legacy like health reform — worse gridlock. I consider this to be the least-likely outcome this year.
All of this argues that no matter what happens in November, the partisan divide in Washington is likely to widen — and that signals this may be our “Lost Decade” like the Japanese suffered in the 90s, with a political class unwilling and unable to meet their legislative responsibilities as the country goes further into the economic ditch. That means Medicare and Medicaid continue to run amok as uncontrolled entitlements, further depressing US creditworthiness and pouring fuel on the national deficit fire. Not a pretty picture, no matter who’s getting inaugurated a year and a week from now.
It seems the only safe bet these days is to count on Congress producing another goose egg in solutions to what ails our nation.