With Presidential Election Static, Senate Slips from GOP’s Grip

The most frequent question I get is “what will the elections mean to Medicare and Medicaid?” We’ve said here the Republicans’ only hope of repealing the Affordable Care Act and enacting entitlement reform comes from making President Obama a one-termer, maintaining their majority in the House, and retaking the Senate.  At the moment the Presidential race remains largely unchanged, with Mitt Romney getting a disappointing bounce from the GOP convention; Republicans will likely hold the House, but their grip on retaking the US Senate is slipping — and with it, any chance of ObamaCare repeal or major changes to Medicare and Medicaid.

Earlier this year it seemed a foregone conclusion that Democrats would lose the Senate, defending 23 of 33 seats up this year.  But now it’s anything but sure, with some wild developments in races thought over and in the books — just look at Todd Akin’s epic “legitimate rape” fail in Missouri, emperiling his shot to knock off Claire McCaskill, and in doing so, possibly control of the Senate.

BusinessWeek got the scoop when GOP master strategist Karl Rove gave a briefing at the Republican convention that gave the best picture yet on the Senate math. Republicans need four seats to retake the Senate, and Rove said he’s hopeful the party can pick up three from Nebraska, North Dakota, Wisconsin and Virginia. Between New Mexico, Hawaii and Connecticut, he added, “we’ve got a shot to take at least one.”  That’s political shorthand for “too close to call.”

But Rove also painted a picture where the GOP remains the Senate minority party: if they lose in Maine (Charlie Summers is getting crushed by Independent Angus King) and Massachusetts (Senator Scott Brown is in a dogfight with liberal crusader Elizabeth Warren), where the Republican candidates face headwinds.  “But we’re gonna lose, either [Summers] or Scott Brown—we can’t afford to lose both,” Rove said ominously. “If we win both, we’re in great shape. If we lose one, it starts to get a little bit edgy. If we lose two, we’re in real difficulty.”

While the Presidential race remains stuck, it’s these “down-ticket” races that really matter in terms of the post-election outlook for Medicare and Medicaid.  It doesn’t appear Romney gave his GOP colleagues any help down-ticket with Paul Ryan’s selection.  So unless Akin and Brown manage to pull ahead — and there’s still two months left, folks — it looks like the Dems may hold the Senate. In doing so, they may assure ObamaCare stays as the law of the land, and major reforms to Medicare and Medicaid unlikely.